The PGA Tour goes back to individual stroke play this week after the team-tailored Zurich Classic of New Orleans, which was won by the Australian duo of Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. It is on to the Valpsar Championship at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida. So of course, it’s time for some Valspar Championship odds. Like many other tournaments, this event returns to the slate after being postponed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Copperhead Course is a par-71 that is 7,340 yards from the tips, but many courses that are a par-71, will only have three par-5s. This course has the customary four, along with five par-3s. It is anchored by the “Snake Pit”, the closing stretch of a par-4, then a par-3, then a par-4. These holes are generally the toughest on the course, and they can have a major impact on the tournament outcome.
As usual, you can watch the first two rounds on The Golf Channel at 3:30 PM ET on Thursday and Friday. The action continues on the Golf Channel on Saturday and Sunday from 1:00 PM ET to 3:00 PM ET. It then moves over to CBS for the rest of the day.
All odds courtesy of Bovada.
Valspar Championship Odds – Favorites
Justin Thomas (+900)
The world’s #2 player has been up and down this season, but he finished T-21 at The Masters and won The Players Championship earlier this season. Thomas has made three starts at this event, racking up two top-20s. This is a course that values tee-to-green play, although you don’t have be a great putter. That sets up well for Thomas.
Dustin Johnson (+1200)
You can also put Johnson, the world’s #1 player, into that category as well. He missed the cut in his Masters defense, but Johnson rebounded for a T-13 at the RBC Heritage. He finished T-6 here in 2019 and shot three rounds in the 60s before a final-round 74 stalled him. Johnson is sixth in SG: Tee To Green (Thomas is fourth), but hopefully, he can putt a little better than his 112th-place ranking in SG: Putting.
Patrick Reed (+1800)
Reed, ranked seventh in the world, isn’t the best player from tee to green. However, he is an excellent putter, second only to Justin Suh in SG: Putting (and he has played 15 more rounds). Reed missed the cut here in 2019, but he has finished second twice at Copperhead, in 2015 and 2018.
Valspar Championship Odds – Contenders
Corey Conners (+2000)
Conners is one of the hottest players on the planet right now. He finished third and seventh at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players’ Championship, respectively. After failing to make it out of his group at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, Conners went T14-T8-T4, and that T-8 came at The Masters. He ranks ninth in SG: Tee to Green, and he’s a player to watch this week.
Paul Casey (+2500)
Casey missed the cut at the RBC Heritage, but he was on a nice roll prior to that, winning in Dubai and posting five top-12 finishes. He has also won the last two editions of this tournament, holding off Reed and Tiger Woods in 2018, and then Jason Kokrak in 2019. If you bet on golf odds, you have to consider Casey among your picks this week, just based on track record.
Scottie Scheffler (+2800)
Scheffler is making his tournament debut here, fresh off a T-8 with Bubba Watson at the team-based Zurich Classic. He has been up and down recently, going T7-T20-MC-2-T54-T18-T8 in his last seven starts. But Scheffler doesn’t seem to get intimidated by tough courses, and that will come in handy at Copperhead.
Valspar Championship Odds – Longshots
Jason Kokrak (+3300)
Kokrak finished second here to Casey in 2019, and that wasn’t his first good result here as Kokrak has finished in the top 15 four times in six starts at Copperhead. He has been off since finishing 49th at The Masters, but he had a run of three top-10s in four starts prior to that.
Ryan Palmer (+5000)
Palmer finished seventh with Jon Rahm in their title defense in New Orleans, and prior to that, he finished T17-17-T17 in three starts before The Masters, where he finished T-34. If his putting can hold up (72nd in SG: Putting), Palmer could be a darkhorse to watch.
Charl Schwartzel (+15000)
Schwartzel and his South African compatriot, Louis Oosthuuizen, lost in a playoff in New Orleans to Leishman and Smith. That was his first top-10 finish since a T-3 at the 3M Open in July 2020. Schwartzel also won here in 2016 and finished sixth in 2017, so he is familiar with success here at Copperhead.